Weekly Market Update from Curt and Shannon

 

July 8, 2013 Hello Brad, The number of signed contracts for home purchases in the United States increased in May to the highest level in more than six years. This is a strong indicator for continued robust activity in the months ahead. As mortgage guidelines and processes continue to intensify, you can count on me to simplify the experience for every client. It would be a pleasure to help. Sincerely, The Dalpiaz Team Curt and Shannon 141 S. McCormick Street Suite #107 Prescott, AZ 86303 Ph-928-777-8971 curt.dalpiaz@academy.cc shannon.dalpiaz@academy.cc LO License-#0912851 LO NMLS-#151454 NMLS #243638

Job Gains Exceed Expectations Average 30-year fixed rate Week of 07/05: +0.25% Week of 06/28: -0.10% ---------------------------- Stocks (Weekly) Dow: 15,000 +100 NASDAQ: 3,450 +50 HIGHLIGHTS The Trade Deficit Rose to the Highest Level Since November. The European Central Bank (ECB) Made No Change in Rates. Euro Zone Unemployment Rose to a Record Level of 12.2%. Violence in Egypt Caused Oil Prices to Move Sharply Higher.

The big event last week was Friday's Employment report. The labor market data came in stronger than expected, which was great news for the economy, but it caused mortgage rates to end the week higher. Against a consensus forecast of 160K, the economy added 195K jobs in June, and upward revisions to the figures from prior months added another 70K. The Unemployment Rate remained at 7.6%. Average Hourly Earnings, a proxy for wage growth, showed the strongest growth in about five years. In short, this report exceeded expectations in nearly every area, which was a double blow for mortgage rates. Stronger labor market data increases future inflation expectations and it brings forward the expected timing for the Fed to begin to scale back its bond purchases. While the primary influence on mortgage rates likely will continue to be expectations for Fed policy, a wide range of global events caught the attention of investors last week. China's central bank unexpectedly tightened monetary policy to try to rein in bank lending. This comes at a time when recent economic data from China has reflected slower economic growth. The strength of the world's second largest economy plays a major role in the performance of many other countries. In addition, the Portuguese government is having difficulty generating support for its austerity program, calling into question the political will to institute reforms in other European countries. Finally, protests and violence in Egypt increased in scale. Uncertainty in China, Europe, and the Middle East adds to the already high levels of volatility seen in mortgage markets recently.

THE WEEK AHEAD The Economic Calendar will be very light this week. Investors will be focused on Wednesday's release of the FOMC Minutes from the June 19 Fed meeting. These detailed minutes often offer additional insight into the thinking of Fed officials. The one big economic report will be the PPI inflation data on Friday. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products. Import Prices and Consumer Sentiment will be the only other economic data released this week. There will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

MON 07/08 TUE 07/09 WED 07/10 THURS 07/11 FRI 07/12   3-yr Auction Fed Minutes Import Prices PPI     ADP 10-yr Auction 30-yr Auction Sentiment

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